London, 2010-07-03: How to think rationally about the future

Myself and Roko Mijic are giving a talk: How to think rationally about the future.

Over the past forty years, science has built up a substantial body of experimental evidence that highlights dozens of alarming systematic failings in our capacity for reason. These errors are especially dangerous in an area as difficult to think about as the future of humanity, where deluding oneself is tempting and the “reality check” won’t arrive until too late.

How can we form accurate beliefs about the future in the face of these considerable obstacles?

This talk will outline ways of identifying and correcting cognitive biases, in particular the use of probability theory to quantify and manipulate uncertainty, and then apply these improved methods to try to paint a more accurate picture of what we all have to look forward to in the 21st century.

2pm-4pm, Saturday 3rd July: Room 416, Fourth floor, Birkbeck College, Torrington Square, LONDON, WC1E 7HX (map)

Room 416 is on the fourth floor (via the lift near reception) in the main Birkbeck College building, in Torrington Square (which is a pedestrian-only square). Torrington Square is about 10 minutes walk from either Russell Square or Goodge St tube stations.

Beforehand and afterwards, we’ll meeting up in the pub: any time after 12.30pm, in The Marlborough Arms, 36 Torrington Place, London WC1E 7HJ (map). To find us, look out for a table where there’s a copy of the book “The Singularity Is Near” displayed.